ensembles
Everything on Ground Truth tagged “ensembles” — 3 items.
Google put the hurricane model's weights on a public bucket News
DeepMind has open-sourced WeatherNext 2 with pretrained weights, including the exact cyclone checkpoint the National Hurricane Center used operationally through the 2025 Atlantic season, plus a one-degree variant sized for a single consumer GPU.
WeatherNext called Melissa's Category 5 landfall five days out News
Google DeepMind's WeatherNext predicted Hurricane Melissa's Category 5 landfall in Jamaica five days ahead at 80% confidence, and its five-day track forecasts averaged about 140 kilometres closer than the European ensemble -- roughly a day and a half of extra warning.
Ensembles: why averaging several models beats picking the best one Lesson
An ensemble runs several models on the same input and combines their answers, which reliably beats any single member because independent mistakes cancel while correct signal adds -- and it is where forecast probabilities come from.