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forecasting

Everything on Ground Truth tagged “forecasting” — 10 items.

Google's WeatherNext 3 shifts global AI forecasts to an hourly refresh News

WeatherNext 3 generates global forecasts every hour using low-latency satellite observations and station data, while retaining analysis inputs and important upper-air limitations.

Dan Luu scored every dated Ed Zitron AI prediction. All of them came back wrong. News

Dan Luu published an audit on September 1, 2026 of roughly 28 dated predictions by the AI skeptic Ed Zitron going back to February 2024, and marked every single one wrong -- including repeated calls that generative AI had permanently peaked, that OpenAI's growth was collapsing, and that Cursor would die.

Google put the hurricane model's weights on a public bucket News

DeepMind has open-sourced WeatherNext 2 with pretrained weights, including the exact cyclone checkpoint the National Hurricane Center used operationally through the 2025 Atlantic season, plus a one-degree variant sized for a single consumer GPU.

WeatherNext called Melissa's Category 5 landfall five days out News

Google DeepMind's WeatherNext predicted Hurricane Melissa's Category 5 landfall in Jamaica five days ahead at 80% confidence, and its five-day track forecasts averaged about 140 kilometres closer than the European ensemble -- roughly a day and a half of extra warning.

Ensembles: why averaging several models beats picking the best one Lesson

An ensemble runs several models on the same input and combines their answers, which reliably beats any single member because independent mistakes cancel while correct signal adds -- and it is where forecast probabilities come from.

WeatherNext models on Google Cloud Tool

Google DeepMind's AI weather forecasts, available as a developer API and as raw forecast data in Earth Engine, BigQuery and Vertex AI, with ensemble scenarios out to 15 days.

WeatherNext 3 forecasts Tool

Google's hourly global AI-weather forecasts are requestable through its documented Google Cloud, BigQuery and Earth Engine access path.

WeatherNext 2 Tool

Google DeepMind's ensemble weather and cyclone forecasting models, released with code, pretrained weights and runnable notebooks. Includes the checkpoint used operationally by the National Hurricane Center in 2025 and a one-degree Mini variant sized for a single GPU.

TimesFM 3 Tool

Google's 330M-parameter multivariate zero-shot forecasting model, downloadable for non-commercial, non-production use.

TimesFM Tool

Google's pre-trained foundation model for time-series forecasting — predicting things that change over time, like demand, traffic, or sensor readings — usable out of the box without training your own model.