forecasting
Laertes leads Metaculus's FutureEval bot tournament News
FutureSearch lists the AI forecasting bot laertes first in Metaculus's Summer FutureEval tournament, but the bot's model, tools, cutoff and leakage controls remain undisclosed.
Anthropic's economists sketch three AI futures and say workers lose share in all the big ones News
Anthropic published three scenarios for AI's economic impact, treating the middle one — AI doing half of all knowledge work by 2030 — as closest to expert expectations, and concluding that while output grows in every case, a larger share of the gains flows to capital rather than to workers.
The AI 2027 authors graded their own forecast at about 75% speed News
The authors of the AI 2027 scenario compared every quantitative prediction that has resolved against reality and found the world running at roughly three-quarters of their projected pace, a result one of them said surprised him in a bad way.
Google's WeatherNext 3 shifts global AI forecasts to an hourly refresh News
WeatherNext 3 generates global forecasts every hour using low-latency satellite observations and station data, while retaining analysis inputs and important upper-air limitations.
Dan Luu scored every dated Ed Zitron AI prediction. All of them came back wrong. News
Dan Luu published an audit on September 1, 2026 of roughly 28 dated predictions by the AI skeptic Ed Zitron going back to February 2024, and marked every single one wrong -- including repeated calls that generative AI had permanently peaked, that OpenAI's growth was collapsing, and that Cursor would die.
Google put the hurricane model's weights on a public bucket News
DeepMind has open-sourced WeatherNext 2 with pretrained weights, including the exact cyclone checkpoint the National Hurricane Center used operationally through the 2025 Atlantic season, plus a one-degree variant sized for a single consumer GPU.
WeatherNext called Melissa's Category 5 landfall five days out News
Google DeepMind's WeatherNext predicted Hurricane Melissa's Category 5 landfall in Jamaica five days ahead at 80% confidence, and its five-day track forecasts averaged about 140 kilometres closer than the European ensemble -- roughly a day and a half of extra warning.
Ensembles: why averaging several models beats picking the best one Lesson
An ensemble runs several models on the same input and combines their answers, which reliably beats any single member because independent mistakes cancel while correct signal adds -- and it is where forecast probabilities come from.
WeatherNext models on Google Cloud Tool
Google DeepMind's AI weather forecasts, available as a developer API and as raw forecast data in Earth Engine, BigQuery and Vertex AI, with ensemble scenarios out to 15 days.
WeatherNext 3 forecasts Tool
Google's hourly global AI-weather forecasts are requestable through its documented Google Cloud, BigQuery and Earth Engine access path.
WeatherNext 2 Tool
Google DeepMind's ensemble weather and cyclone forecasting models, released with code, pretrained weights and runnable notebooks. Includes the checkpoint used operationally by the National Hurricane Center in 2025 and a one-degree Mini variant sized for a single GPU.
TimesFM 3 Tool
Google's 330M-parameter multivariate zero-shot forecasting model, downloadable for non-commercial, non-production use.
TimesFM Tool
Google's pre-trained foundation model for time-series forecasting — predicting things that change over time, like demand, traffic, or sensor readings — usable out of the box without training your own model.